Coronavirus, more than 420 people killed in China only.
The 'black swan' has arrived,despite insincere statements from authorities and economists.
Beijing was already experiencing an economic slowdown, American companies above all already moving supplies elsewhere. Optimism for the first trade agreement between Washington and China has vanished, giving way to the likely decline in 2020, which would be particularly severe in emerging areas and raw materials from oil to copper.
If the emergency continues after February, Chinese growth, which was 6% at the end of 2019, will drop to 2%.
In 2003 SARS inflicted losses of 40 billion dollars and -0.1% of global GDP. This possible pandemic, due to the Chinese weight on GDP risen to 16% from 4%, would become more serious, also because the overall growth is for a third Chinese merit. However, it has just passed SARS in number of cases.
The Americans think that Xi Jinping's authority will suffer, having been accused by the mayor of the outbreak city Wuhan for having delayed, as the top of the hierarchy, the communication of the epidemic that broke out in mid-December and therefore the alert for immediate defenses. (cnbc.com / 2020/01/31)
The tale of the virus born in a military research laboratory has been disproved by the media; but there may be a fear that voters will react violently to the information that their governments, by definition self-referential "enlightened", are active in the barbaric treacherous practice of biological arsenals.
The stock exchanges could collapse on Monday.
An effective vaccine will only be on the market in a year.
If it is early for a health balance, the reaction of the organizers of fairs and congresses, which canceled the February events in Hong Kong, Shanghai and other Asian centers, is concrete. The dramatic drop in Chinese visitors or exhibitors in present-day shows is also evident, such as the Spielwarenmesse Toy Expo, Nuremberg (Germany). Guangzhou auto shows were postponed in late February.
Tens of millions of Chinese workers are practically in quarantine, moreover forced to extend the New Year's holidays.
Among many, LED China 2020, Entertainment Design Expo 2020, Retail China 2020 and the fairs in Shenzen, central Guangdong, near Guangzhou, where shoes, bags, car interiors, clothing in animal or synthetic leather have been postponed.
The incubation of the disease, defined 2019-nCoV, ranges from 5 to 12 days.
Canceled flights, closed borders, governments in a state of emergency express rational and thoughtful fears. Like economic operators do, despite the heavy liabilities of their annual accounts that the cancellation of a commercial event causes them.
The International Leather Market yesterday published the news that the Boston exhibition (February 5 \ 6), dedicated to materials and supplies for consumer goods in animal or synthetic leather, has been cancelled.
The 'black swan' has arrived,despite insincere statements from authorities and economists.
Beijing was already experiencing an economic slowdown, American companies above all already moving supplies elsewhere. Optimism for the first trade agreement between Washington and China has vanished, giving way to the likely decline in 2020, which would be particularly severe in emerging areas and raw materials from oil to copper.
If the emergency continues after February, Chinese growth, which was 6% at the end of 2019, will drop to 2%.
In 2003 SARS inflicted losses of 40 billion dollars and -0.1% of global GDP. This possible pandemic, due to the Chinese weight on GDP risen to 16% from 4%, would become more serious, also because the overall growth is for a third Chinese merit. However, it has just passed SARS in number of cases.
The Americans think that Xi Jinping's authority will suffer, having been accused by the mayor of the outbreak city Wuhan for having delayed, as the top of the hierarchy, the communication of the epidemic that broke out in mid-December and therefore the alert for immediate defenses. (cnbc.com / 2020/01/31)
The tale of the virus born in a military research laboratory has been disproved by the media; but there may be a fear that voters will react violently to the information that their governments, by definition self-referential "enlightened", are active in the barbaric treacherous practice of biological arsenals.
The stock exchanges could collapse on Monday.
An effective vaccine will only be on the market in a year.
If it is early for a health balance, the reaction of the organizers of fairs and congresses, which canceled the February events in Hong Kong, Shanghai and other Asian centers, is concrete. The dramatic drop in Chinese visitors or exhibitors in present-day shows is also evident, such as the Spielwarenmesse Toy Expo, Nuremberg (Germany). Guangzhou auto shows were postponed in late February.
Tens of millions of Chinese workers are practically in quarantine, moreover forced to extend the New Year's holidays.
Among many, LED China 2020, Entertainment Design Expo 2020, Retail China 2020 and the fairs in Shenzen, central Guangdong, near Guangzhou, where shoes, bags, car interiors, clothing in animal or synthetic leather have been postponed.
The incubation of the disease, defined 2019-nCoV, ranges from 5 to 12 days.
Canceled flights, closed borders, governments in a state of emergency express rational and thoughtful fears. Like economic operators do, despite the heavy liabilities of their annual accounts that the cancellation of a commercial event causes them.
The International Leather Market yesterday published the news that the Boston exhibition (February 5 \ 6), dedicated to materials and supplies for consumer goods in animal or synthetic leather, has been cancelled.
Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) mette in quarantena milioni di persone e le fiere commerciali
Oltre 420 morti solo in Cina.
E' arrivato il 'cigno nero', nonostante le insincere dichiarazioni di autorità ed economisti.
Pechino risultava già in rallentamento economico, le società americane soprattutto già spostavano l'approvvigionamento altrove. L'ottimismo per il primo accordo commerciale fra Washington e Cina è svanito, lasciando il posto alla probabile flessione del 2020, particolarmente dura nelle aree emergenti e nelle materie prime dal petrolio al rame.
Se l'emergenza continuasse dopo febbraio, la crescita cinese, che a fine 2019 era del 6%, cadrebbe al 2%.
SARS nel 2003 aveva inflitto perdite di 40 miliardi di dollari ed un -0,1% al PIL globale. Questa eventuale pandemia, a causa del peso cinese sul PIL salito al 16% dal 4%, diventerebbe più grave, anche perché la crescita complessiva è ormai per un terzo merito cinese. E comunque ha appena superato per numero di casi la SARS.
Gli americani pensano che l'autorità di Xi Jinping ne risentirà, essendo stato accusato dal sindaco della città focolaio Wuhan di avere ritardato, quale vertice della gerarchia, la comunicazione dell'epidemia scoppiata a metà dicembre e quindi l'allerta per le immediate difese. (cnbc.com /2020/01/31)
La storia del virus nato in un laboratorio di ricerca militare è stata smentita dai media; ma potrebbe esserci dietro la paura che gli elettori reagiscano violentemente alla informazione che i loro governi, per definizione autoreferenziale 'illuminati', siano attivi nella barbara infida pratica degli arsenali biologici.
Lunedì le borse potrebbero crollare.
Un vaccino efficace si troverà sul mercato solo tra un anno.
Se è presto per un bilancio sanitario, è concreta la reazione degli organizzatori di fiere e di congressi , che hanno cancellato gli eventi di febbraio a Hong Kong, Shanghai e altri centri asiatici. E' altrettanto evidente il calo drammatico di visitatori od espositori cinesi nelle rassegne del presente, come l'expo del giocattolo Spielwarenmesse, Norimberga (Germania). Le mostre automobilistiche di Guangzhou a fine febbraio sono state rinviate.
Decine di milioni di lavoratori cinesi sono praticamente in quarantena, oltretutto forzati a prolungare le vacanze del Capodanno.
Tra le tante sono state rinviate LED China 2020, Entertainment Design Expo 2020, Retail China 2020 e le fiere a Shenzen, centro del Guangdong , vicino a Guangzhou, dove si producono scarpe, borse, interni auto, abbigliamento in pelle animale o sintetica.
L'incubazione della malattia, definita 2019-nCoV, va dai 5 ai 12 giorni.
Voli cancellati, frontiere chiuse, governi in stato di emergenza esprimono paure razionali e meditate. Al pari di quanto fanno gli operatori economici, nonostante i passivi pesanti dei loro bilanci annuali che l'annullamento di un evento commerciale gli causa.
International Leather Market ha pubblicato ieri la notizia che l'esposizione di Boston (5\6 febbraio), dedicata ai materiali e forniture per beni di consumo in pelle animale o sintetica è stata cancellata.
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