Financial markets will fall because we are not yet at the bottom. And they will hit the real economy. The dramatic effect of the continuing pandemic and the 30 million unemployed Americans has yet to come. Low profits, many bankruptcies, long-term unemployment. China has reopened, the recovery will be difficult as it is linked to international trade.
Goodbye globalization? No, it would be a fatal mistake.
Supply chains will remain international, the outage is temporary, like the virus.
This year the world economy will drop brutally by 3%, estimates World Economic Outlook, IMF, except Beijing which instead will grow by 1.2%. It seems a.. Chinese joke. In particular: US -6.1%, Euro Area -7.5% (Italy -9.1%), Japan -5.2%, India + 1.9%, Russia - 5.5%, Brazil -5.3%.
To get out quickly, people should feel confident about the contagion - politicians and journalists instead frighten - and monetary policies should remain aggressive widely.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will suffocate or fall into the hands of criminals without adequate profits and without liquidity.
A third of the major brands and department stores seem destined to disappear together with the suppliers, pulverized and immersed in the parallel economy without protection. See Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Cambodia to which we add the large areas of undeclared work, indigenous and immigrant workers, in industrialized nations, from Italy to the USA. (news.cgtn.com / 2020-05-17)
The latest UBS Evidence Lab CFO survey found that, although there was no escape from China in supply chains, uncertainties are increasing. 50% of producers have already partially withdrawn production, 60% would like to do so. The escalation of US-China tensions with the tightening on technology (Huawei) will give a boost to the exit, which many governments like the Japanese propose and support. A change in the short term is unlikely.
Companies have lost revenues and the outlook remains unclear; while Beijing opens up further to businesses and foreign capital.
Now, more than the 2021 fashion trend season, Westerners are thinking about canceling contracts and only partially honoring their debts. 3 billion dollars have vanished in Bangladesh for clothing left without payments, 2 million out of 4 million employed have been fired. H&M, Nike, Marks and Spencer, Tommy Hilfiger, Primark ensure in words the multitude of Asian factories to Turkey. Who protests against a big client if there is no alternative? In fact, the local police beat the protesters, who ask for a minimum wage. (ft.com / May 17/2020)
Vietnam is an advantaged country over regional competitors, it contained the epidemic, it has 2-3 months of production guaranteed in low value-added items: textiles, clothing, leather, footwear. (vietnam-briefing.com / May 18, 2020)
The supply policy has become a priority on the boards of directors, the convenience of the price is accompanied by the assessment of strategic risk.
Wild and dirty has become the competition in personal protective equipment. Those in charge of finding them have doubled, stocks officially out of stock, people with briefcases full of dollars knock on the entrances of the factories making PPE, the goods disappear on the way from the seller's headquarters to the shipping point (happened also in March to the detriment of the Italians by of Germans and other European scoundrels), masks / face shields / clothes once again a monopoly of the Chinese who also send insecure goods.
A memorable gaslighting, carried out by the Beijing CCP, which convinces us that it is the doctor who saves us from the disease ..even if there released and belatedly notified.
Goodbye globalization? No, it would be a fatal mistake.
Supply chains will remain international, the outage is temporary, like the virus.
This year the world economy will drop brutally by 3%, estimates World Economic Outlook, IMF, except Beijing which instead will grow by 1.2%. It seems a.. Chinese joke. In particular: US -6.1%, Euro Area -7.5% (Italy -9.1%), Japan -5.2%, India + 1.9%, Russia - 5.5%, Brazil -5.3%.
To get out quickly, people should feel confident about the contagion - politicians and journalists instead frighten - and monetary policies should remain aggressive widely.
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will suffocate or fall into the hands of criminals without adequate profits and without liquidity.
A third of the major brands and department stores seem destined to disappear together with the suppliers, pulverized and immersed in the parallel economy without protection. See Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Cambodia to which we add the large areas of undeclared work, indigenous and immigrant workers, in industrialized nations, from Italy to the USA. (news.cgtn.com / 2020-05-17)
The latest UBS Evidence Lab CFO survey found that, although there was no escape from China in supply chains, uncertainties are increasing. 50% of producers have already partially withdrawn production, 60% would like to do so. The escalation of US-China tensions with the tightening on technology (Huawei) will give a boost to the exit, which many governments like the Japanese propose and support. A change in the short term is unlikely.
Companies have lost revenues and the outlook remains unclear; while Beijing opens up further to businesses and foreign capital.
Now, more than the 2021 fashion trend season, Westerners are thinking about canceling contracts and only partially honoring their debts. 3 billion dollars have vanished in Bangladesh for clothing left without payments, 2 million out of 4 million employed have been fired. H&M, Nike, Marks and Spencer, Tommy Hilfiger, Primark ensure in words the multitude of Asian factories to Turkey. Who protests against a big client if there is no alternative? In fact, the local police beat the protesters, who ask for a minimum wage. (ft.com / May 17/2020)
Vietnam is an advantaged country over regional competitors, it contained the epidemic, it has 2-3 months of production guaranteed in low value-added items: textiles, clothing, leather, footwear. (vietnam-briefing.com / May 18, 2020)
The supply policy has become a priority on the boards of directors, the convenience of the price is accompanied by the assessment of strategic risk.
Wild and dirty has become the competition in personal protective equipment. Those in charge of finding them have doubled, stocks officially out of stock, people with briefcases full of dollars knock on the entrances of the factories making PPE, the goods disappear on the way from the seller's headquarters to the shipping point (happened also in March to the detriment of the Italians by of Germans and other European scoundrels), masks / face shields / clothes once again a monopoly of the Chinese who also send insecure goods.
A memorable gaslighting, carried out by the Beijing CCP, which convinces us that it is the doctor who saves us from the disease ..even if there released and belatedly notified.
Il più grande scherzo cinese della storia
I mercati finanziari cadranno perché non siamo ancora sul fondo. E si abbatteranno sull'economia reale. L'effetto drammatico della pandemia che continua e dei 30 milioni di disoccupati americani deve ancora arrivare. Profitti bassi, fallimenti tanti, disoccupazione per lungo periodo. La Cina ha riaperto, la ripresa sarà difficile poiché collegata al commercio internazionale.
Globalizzazione addio? No, sarebbe errore fatale.
Le catene di approvvigionamento resteranno internazionali, l'interruzione è temporanea, come il virus.
Quest'anno l'economia mondiale scenderà brutalmente del 3%, stima World Economic Outlook, FMI, tranne Pechino che invece crescerà dell'1,2%. Sembra uno scherzo ..cinese. In particolare: US -6.1%, Euro Area -7,5% (Italy -9.1%), Giappone -5,2%, India +1,9%, Russia - 5,5%, Brazil -5,3%.
Per uscirne in fretta la gente dovrebbe sentirsi sicura riguardo al contagio- politici e giornalisti invece spaventano- e le politiche monetarie restare aggressive estesamente.
Le piccole e medie imprese (SMEs) senza profitti adeguati e senza liquidità soffocheranno o cadranno nelle mani dei criminali.
Un terzo dei grandi marchi e department stores sembra destinato a scomparire insieme con i fornitori, polverizzati e immersi nell'economia parallela privi di tutele. Vedi Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Cambogia a cui aggiungiamo le grosse sacche di lavoro nero, indigeno e immigrato, nelle nazioni industrializzate, da Italia a USA. (news.cgtn.com /2020-05-17)
L'ultimo sondaggio UBS Evidence Lab CFO rileva che, pur essendo mancata una fuga dalla Cina nelle catene di approvvigionamento, le incertezze aumentano. Il 50% dei produttori ha già ritirato parzialmente la produzione, il 60% vorrebbe farlo. L'escalation delle tensioni USA-Cina con l'inasprimento sulla tecnologia (Huawei) darà una spinta all'affrancamento, che molti governi come il giapponese propongono e sostengono. Un cambiamento a breve è improbabile.
Le società hanno perso ricavi e le prospettive rimangono oscure; mentre Pechino si apre ulteriormente alle imprese e ai capitali esteri.
Adesso, più che la stagione tendenze moda 2021, gli occidentali pensano a disdettare i contratti e a onorare solo parzialmente i propri debiti. 3 miliardi di dollari sono svaniti in Bangladesh per capi di vestiario rimasti senza saldo, 2 milioni su 4 milioni occupati sono stati licenziati. H&M, Nike, Marks and Spencer, Tommy Hilfiger, Primark assicurano a parole la moltitudine delle fabbriche asiatiche fino alla Turchia. Chi protesta contro un grosso cliente se manca qualsiasi alternativa? La polizia locale anzi picchia i manifestanti, che chiedono una minima retribuzione. (ft.com /May 17/ 2020)
Un Paese in vantaggio sui competitor regionali è il Vietnam, ha contenuto l'epidemia, ha 2-3 mesi assicurati di produzione negli articoli a basso valore aggiunto: tessile, abbigliamento, pelle, calzatura. (vietnam-briefing.com /May 18, 2020)
La politica dei rifornimenti è diventata prioritaria nei consigli di amministrazione, alla convenienza del prezzo si affianca la valutazione del rischio strategico.
Selvaggia e sporca è diventata la concorrenza nei dispositivi di protezione individuale (Personal Protective Equipment). Gli incaricati del loro reperimento sono raddoppiati, le scorte esaurite ufficialmente, persone con valigette piene di dollari bussano agli ingressi degli stabilimenti che li confezionano, la merce sparisce nel tragitto dalla sede del venditore al posto di spedizione (successe anche in marzo a danno degli italiani da parte di tedeschi ed altri farabutti europei), maschere/scudi facciali/abiti ancora una volta monopolio dei cinesi che mandano anche merce insicura.
Un memorable gaslighting, compiuto dal CCP di Pechino, che ci convince essere lui il medico che ci salva dal morbo ..seppur lì sprigionato e tardivamente notificato.
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